Elon Musk’s $44 billion acquisition of the platform X (formerly Twitter) in October 2022 is presenting significant challenges for the banks involved, particularly with the $13 billion loan that seven institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, extended for the purchase. Here’s a closer look at the situation:
### Why the Deal is Problematic for Banks:
– **Stale Debt**: The loans have become the worst merger-finance deal since the 2008 crisis, as X’s declining financial health means banks cannot sell this debt, leading to substantial losses.
– **Long Hold Times**: The debt is lingering on bank balance sheets longer than any previous unsold loans since the financial crisis, raising alarm.
– **Overvaluation Acknowledged**: The banks proceeded with financing despite Musk acknowledging the company’s overvaluation, perhaps driven by the opportunity to work with the world’s wealthiest individual.
### X’s Financial Struggles:
– **Interest Expenses vs. Revenue**: X anticipated over $1 billion in annual interest expenses, while projected revenue this year is only around $600 million, heightening the risk of default.
– **Attempts at Restructuring**: Musk’s efforts to restructure the debt have stalled, affecting banks like Barclays, which has seen major resignations and substantial impacts on management due to the burden of X’s debt.
### Impact on Tesla (TSLA):
– **Investor Concerns**: The financial instability at X is raising concerns for Tesla investors, with speculation that Musk may need to sell $1 to $2 billion in Tesla shares to stabilize X’s finances.
– **Analyst Sentiment**: Current consensus on TSLA is a Hold, with 10 Buys, 14 Holds, and seven Sells noted, as the stock has seen a decline of over 10% year-to-date. The average price target stands at $211.46, suggesting a potential downside of 4.4%.